The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and the Friday before the big Derby is the Kentucky Oaks in which the fillies compete. I have been keeping up with the ongoing drama, and today the post positions were drawn for the Oaks. The favorite was unlucky to get the last post position, but tonight on Bloodhorse, a video of her working in her stall was shown. Lucky number 13 is not that bad a post to have, but it means that tomorrow we have to worry about which horse gets which post position for the big one, the Run for the Roses.
The entire game of horse racing is betting against one another. The owners have their own private game in which naturally, they enter the race to win the big prize and have all the glory of the victory. The bettors want any horse to win provided that it pays them back for taking the risk to plunk a few dollars down on it.
Now this is the sanity of horse racing...A favorite which will pay little simply because everyone and his brother is betting on it is the rich man's best bet if in fact the horse does win. The rich man can afford to put a couple grand on the win bet, and even if he does lose, because he is a rich man, he has not felt a thing...but if he wins, he gets a little pocket change no matter how much he wins...that is all that it is to him or to anyone else for that matter.
So in recent times, a few longshot horses have won which has made the entire Derby a bit of a question mark. Why can't a favorite actually win a race in Kentucky on this famous day of days? Mine that Bird was a 50 to 1 longshot that paid huge, so people have begun to hunger for big wins instead of best wins.
Whenever one of these longshot horses comes in to the money, it changes the entire purpose of the game. The purpose then becomes to win as big a chunk of money that you can get. Superfectas, trifectas, and even exactas pay huge sums of money if a longshot even places or shows. So right now, every handicapper in town is trying to sell information to buyers on which horse of the lot can actually hit the board to reward a bet including a big longshot, shooting the payoff to sky-high amounts.
Now for sure, nobody knows which horse is the most likely to do that, so it is a kind of Russian Roulette game to figure out which of the long shots figured at 20-1 and over will hit the board to reward some lucky superfecta, trifecta, or exacta bet. Whether it will actually happen is anyone's guess. Theoretically, the best horses really should be at the finish line, and in many races, it just so happens that it works out that the top horses actually do as predicted, and win in the first four positions.
So when betting, some bettors protect themselves by betting not only a favorite with a group of horses that could and should be able to get to the finish line ahead of everyone else but also a few tickets that include some unlikely's just on the chance that maybe a great jockey can actually get an unlikely horse to the finish line before the rest stagger in.
Unfortunately for me, I always stick with a single bet. I usually back out of playing exotics but this year I intend to try. Even if I have to do it all on Kentucky Oaks advance betting for the Derby, and I intend to take a few chances which I have not ever done before. I always stay too sensible and practical, knowing that to bet too heavily only costs you, but does not ever earn you anything worthwhile.
I intend to turn that around, but I admit that I am betting heavily on California Chrome to win this race...I am betting on him because he is honestly the very best horse in here, and I hope that he gets a good post position to prove it. If he does, I will go with him, but if he is really handicapped by a losing post ( 1 or 17 and above) I will have to reconsider the bet...I think he is the only horse who can truly overcome a bad post and still win it, but I will be careful if he is given a really bad post position.
I am praying for him and all his connections that he does win this race because he is a class act, the really super horse that can and maybe will be able to win the Triple Crown. Cross my fingers and hope that he does.
But who will come with him? Who is likely to be second, third, and fourth...that I just do not know...I will wait until tomorrow when the post positions are drawn and the odds are given. Then I will decide for sure. I am listening to everyone but in the end, one's own intuition and horse sense is the best factor to use when betting.
It will be all over after Saturday afternoon...time flies! But Friday is an important day in which the Oaks races will have an influence. I hope to play a Daily Double and catch it...Oaks and Derby double. That would be cool. Untapable is the early favorite but already she has had the luck to draw post 13. That may be good, or it may not...she is clearly the best of the fillies as well...so what will it be, a favorite to win both Oaks and Derby? Or upsets?
Oh, how I hope that my post derby entry here will be a WINNING statement.
Roster of Oaks entries are as follows: 1. Please Explain (50-1) 2. Ria Antonia (10-1) 3. Sugar Shock (12-1) 4. Rosalind (8-1) 5. Thank You MaryLou (30-1) 6. Kiss Moon (30-1) 7. Fashion Plate (6-1) 8. Aurelia's Belle (50-1) 9. Unbridled Forever (12-1), 10. Empress of Midway (50-1) 11. My Miss Sophia (8-1) 12. Got Lucky ( 20-1), and 13. Untapable (4-5) clear, easy favorite ridden by Rosie Napravnik.
The racing secretary is who sets the odds and thus actually manages the game. But most of the odds are sound and reasonable. The person who is best to listen regarding the outcome of the race is the trainer of the horse who knows the truth about how well his entry can do in the race.
I always study a horse live before he or she goes into the gate. Horses generally give an indication of how they feel about the race. Now believe it or not, and I know that you won't, but I know for a fact that horses can and do think and speak in the language that I can know and understand...I look for body language, but also for other signs that I believe tell me the truth about which horse will win. I was given the winner of the first at Turf Paradise race that I attended when I first moved here years ago...it came from within...I had it right...It was Strike the Gold trained by Nick Zito. I can win through internal knowledge better than any other kind if I take advantage of it...Sometimes I figure it out through watching videos, reading stats, studying past performances, but always through the body language of the horse...and horses do know...always, they are who wins or loses the race.
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