Preakness Stakes

The Preakness field is narrowed to nine horses. Orb is the favorite and Departing, the winner of the Illinois Derby is second favorite, while Golden Cents is third at 8 -1.  Included are MyLute, Oxbow, Will Take Charge, and It's My Lucky Day, and Titletown Five, and maybe Governor Charlie.  On Tuesday, Bob Baffert will decide if he will run Governor Charlie in this race or not.  Vyjack will not run in this race his owner has decided.  He believes that he will try Vyjack on turf.

In an earlier post I discussed the nature of the Triple Crown stakes.  It is a very difficult thing for one horse to race in a few weeks against horses who have not raced at all and are considered fresh horses.  It would appear that only Departing, Governor Charlie, and Titletown Five qualify as fresh horses so if that axiom runs true, it is possible that one of those could defeat the winner of the Kentucky Derby, Orb. 

Usually, it is the third leg of the Triple Crown where an unknown out of the blue fresh horse steals away the crown from the victor of the first two legs.  But there have been occasions where it is the Preakness that is the tougher of the two legs.  So there is a chance that a horse could defeat Orb but most backers will find that unlikely.

Some believe that the crown has not been won due to the number of horses entered into the Derby.  It is as if the only reason these races are offered is just to win that elusive crown. It is a challenge and a testament to a horse's ability as well as his opponents, not the real reason to enter the race at all.  The real reason is as with any stakes race, a contest amongst horses of similar capabilities to learn which on a given day has the strength, stamina, endurance, and will to win.  

What makes horse racing more interesting and fun to bet in these times is the novelty of the exotic races, the trifecta, the superfecta, and the super high five bets.  Not just the owners benefit from fourth or fifth position, but also the gamblers who keep this game going.  It is amazing at how much one can win on an exotic trifecta alone.  The trifecta narrows it down to the first three horses so don't think that gamblers are necessarily for favorites to win all the time at all.  Orb will be having many who are willing for him to relinquish his title to another if the other pays a bettor a bigger return.

Rosie Napravnik will get a lot of backing.  Nobody would be dismayed if MyLute were to win this race with her riding him, but it is unlikely that Orb will be defeated by MyLute at this point in time.  Orb has been improving and improving so that he is on a run.  It is just interesting to see now how far that run will extend. He has won five races in a row. Can he make it six?  and then seven?  We will see.

Preakness Time

The Preakness is the second leg of the Triple Crown, a marathon race in which a horse enters three different stakes races as a three year old.  Any horse that can win all three races in succession is called the Triple Crown Winner.  This has not happened since the 70's in which three horses in a single decade accomplished the feat. The first was Secretariat, the second was Affirmed, and the last was Seattle Slew.  I remember that decade well, as I was back in the eastern half of the nation then.  I watched Secretariat win when in the state of Michigan, and I witnessed the Affirmed and Seattle Slew victories when I lived in the state of Florida. Interesting that both are peninsula states.

Since then it has been the trainers who have designed the way to either win or lose at these stake races.   They would hold their horses out from a race so that they could enter a later race with a fresh horse.  This was very obvious in a race with Winning Colors,  a filly that a trainer, Woody Stephens, determined to beat no matter what.  So since he was so successful at that trick, other trainers learned from him that it is pretty easy to beat a horse who has raced successfully in the first two legs to be pretty much unable to  with stand the competition from a horse that is destined for only the third leg.  Thus, we have had no winners  of the Triple Crown since the 70's.  Wonder if Orb will win the first two to do as so many have done, fade out in the Belmont.

There are a few newcomers to the Preakness while most of the runners in the Kentucky Derby have declined to race in the Preakness but there are enough who like Orb are also rans in the Derby who will be there to challenge him to a good and fair race.  The horse, Departing, who won the Illinois Derby, is considered by most as the only challenger to Orb but that remains to be seen.  Since it was an off track, and mud being driven into a horse's face probably cost it momentum, it will take a dry track to see if Orb is truly the wonder horse that all his backers believe him to be.

If Orb does win, and goes on to face the same group of horses three weeks later in New York for the Belmont stakes, and he does not have a serious contender in a fresh horse seeking to win he could become the first Triple Crown winner since Seattle Slew won in the late 70's.  One wonders whether the drought is near an end, and of course, bets have been taken on this along the way.  But the most important part of the equation in this particular race lies with the owners and the trainer.  For some reason, the media elements have capitalized on the Phipps family and the trainer Shug.  Some blogger even suggested that it was a form of Old School Racing that won the Derby.  He seemed to challenge the likes of D.Wayne Lucas and Todd Pletcher who are made out to be glory seeking trainers.

Shug is a trainer who only puts horses in who he believes will win.  If every trainer did that, the Derby would probably be cut down to five horses in the field, and one of those five trainers would be right. I do not find fault with D. Wayne Lucas, Todd Pletcher,  or Doug O'Neill for finding horses to enter who can be in the money and are not necessarily winners all.  Horse racing is not just for trainers who must always win, win, win.  California racing is certainly proof of that.  Horseracing has fallen into total disarray in that the fields are so small.  It is not fun to bet on California races any longer.

So what will happen this Saturday at the Preakness? Will Orb win again?  Will Shug finally be ready to claim a Triple Crown winner? The Phipps family? Or will another trainer and horse steal the show?  That is why it is a horse race?  Your bet is as good as mine.

Dreams and their meaning

I have dreams every night in which I am quite active. Some I remember so well that I can recall them even a week later. Others appear to be erased firmly from my mind and all that I can recall is that I either liked it or disliked it immensely. Usually I dislike most of them.

But this morning I had a strange dream about my dad.  I could see him far away at a distance from me washing his car, but in this case, it was a long red limousine.  It actually changed in the dream from a regular sedan into a limousine.  Next thing I know I am driving the limousine and trying to maneuver it through a parking lot whereupon it came apart, half going one way and the other half going another way...why, heck, I have no idea, but everyone was mad at me thinking it was my fault, as I was driving I was looking for the back half of the thing but could not find it anywhere.  It ended up coming into view and someone I knew was in it.  Then the police were angry at me until I explained what happened and I talked up and back at the officers as I was angry as all heck too...I ended up planning to go to court to make the company pay for it since it should not have come apart as it had.  Really weird dream...imagine!This guy was screaming at me, You will never drive a car in this state again, and I was screaming back, like you think I would want to, but you are so dead wrong...it was very strange the way it worked out finally in my favor.  Weird!

So now I am planning to go to Fashion Square to pay my bill and may do a little looking around.

Learning at Apple

For the past two weeks, I have been fortunate to have the same girl as the tutor or instructor to help me to learn how to use pages for my book.  Now granted, I have been redesigning the book in my mind but not on paper.  In fact, as time passes, the book changes a lot for me.  Partially due to reading other books which impact me, since the first draft is essentially amassing a lot of material to be reworked later.  This exercise in learning how to use a computer to help write a book has changed my attitude and my mind about how it will be done from here on so that it is not going to look very much like the original at all.

I had thought originally that I wanted the Iliad to be a background upon which I would write the story so I had to condense the Iliad chapters and use a line from each as a backdrop for my story. I have since decided otherwise despite the fact that it was such an influence on a young, and I mean very young Alexander.  The problem is that most people forget how old Alexander was when he began his military life, and in truth, when one realizes that he was so influenced by Achilles, Alexander appears to be at least the proverbial 10 going on 40 since it seems that he is Achilles reborn.

Today I learned from my tudor about a website called Reddit. I have seen Reddit often in the share groups but I had never gone to it or learned what it was. I have now joined it too so that I can find what goes on there.

I had been studying hyperlinks so I showed the tutor the reason that I wanted to know how to use them.    A hyperlink can connect two pages with a single word, but one has to know what it is that one wants to  connect.  I don't know that I can do it at this blogspot or not.  I tried a link as a link last time but it did not work as it should have done.  Danged if I know why.

Now tonight I was trying to find how to find my bookmarks at my Samsung Galaxy 3 cellphone.  So far no success in that either. I will have to ask I guess.

Oh well, this world of hitech is both good and bad.  Anyone can rip anyone off it seems with ease when one publishes a work of any kind on the internet.  I dislike that but know that there is little to prevent it.

Anyway, while checking on both Louis XIV and Alexander at Reddit, I found more references to Hitler again there.  More the reason to write the book.  People impose beliefs from today on yesterday far too easily.  But this learning pages is slower than I anticipated, and I have not gotten back to Scrivener yet but will soon.

My day at the Derby

First of all, I did not get any sleep the night before the Derby.  I had wanted to make this Derby the one where I would win my superfecta bet, but I could not make it happen.  I finally decided after all the work that I had put into it to simply choose the horses which had won four races so that this would be the fifth.  Orb was one of those, and Verrazano and Vyjack are the other two.

I won $25.60 on Orb because he turned out to be the favorite along with Revolutionary.  The day before in the Kentucky Oaks, Calvin Borel had been aboard Rose to Gold who for some reason or other took a turn left to nearly cut off Dreaming of Julia.  It was fortunate that they did not touch so far as I know but the video clearly shows that Borel cut out in front of Julia way too soon to try to get to the rail for which he is famous. When I saw that, I was furious because I had wanted to see Julia at her best winning away...Did he do it deliberately? Most likely, but he timed it badly.

So I got up early, decided to go to Turf Paradise because I had gone to OTB to  do the Oaks.  I was so miffed because I bet only the Oaks and I had bet on Dreaming of Julia, believing that she, Beholder, and Midnight Lucky would be making a race of it.  As it is, Calvin gave it to Princess of Sylmar. I went to his twitter page to see what was there because something alerted me to the fact that he was getting all kinds of criticism.  Some guy really took him over the coals. Surely, if you had bet your bundle on Julia you were creamed.  Pletcher did say that Julia got creamed at the Gate.  Another critic said that she had run her eyeballs out...it is all very annoying when a rider for some reason or other does something so outrageous as to turn you against him. I was so angry I could scream too, because Johnny Velasquez had just returned to riding from time out for an injury.  Frankly,  I don't think he should have been riding any of his horses either.

However, it is all water under the bridge, and often the jockeys have the trainers over a barrel since they made commitments they cannot change easily.  In the end, I know that a good jockey makes all the difference in the world, because I learned that all too well when a jockey took a horse that was behind a wall of horses to find room to get it through to catch the win. I remember that one because it was one I bet on after I read on Twitter that it was up for its race. I took note and decided to bet on it, and next thing I knew it was really having a time getting through all those horses jammed together, but the jockey maneuvered it so that it made it through...I won that day...my one and only bet. Rosario proved it with Orb also.  Had he not whipped him when he did, he could have come in to show.  But Rosario took charge with the whip so that Orb took off running.

 I have trained myself to be careful about betting excessively which is the downfall of any player.  Win and quit.

So yes, I won yesterday enough to conceal the pain of losing my bet on Julia the day before.  But I had had Julia as a Daily Double with the Derby so I was not happy that she got creamed.  But I did not have her paired with Orb so it does not matter.  I went straight betting.  Did have one exotic exacta box bet and Orb was in it, but I somehow or other, omitted Golden Soul who I had known was good for it...too bad.  But so it goes.

Now that the Super five has carried over to Thursday's game, I am considering playing it...if it is playable within my $range.

Everyone is ready for the Preakness.  Governor Charlie of Sunland Derby fame will be racing against Orb. Charlie is not one to overlook despite the fact that most believe that Orb is ready for the Preakness.  If Charlie does as well as he did at Sunland, but who knows since the track surface does matter, he  could defeat Orb.  I like him, and Brian Zipse told me that Departing is a likely contender also.  

Golden Cents will also be racing against Orb and he has the experience of the Derby behind him too so that it is altogether possible that he could look much like he had in the Santa Anita Derby. So right there are four horses that are capable of winning the Blackeyed Susans on Preakness Day.

For Orb backers, all are hoping for the Triple Crown.  That is a lot of racing in a short time but if he is as great as he has proved to be so far, he should handle it.  He has probably spent more time racing this year than all the other 3 year olds, so it will be interesting to see if that works in his favor or not.

My neighbor gave me a ride Friday for the Oaks so that I could get there sooner.  I told her I hoped to win $50 dollars...small change to big time bettors but to me it is a lot of money right now.  She said, "Just so you don't spend more than $2.00."  I laughed.  "I don't throw my money away," I said.  Ha!

So today when I told my story on facebook David Casson responded with but if you had bet $20 you would have won $256. I knew that. I would have had to put up $60 to do that though.  It is all put up the money for short bets. I like to put up short money to win long returns...I once won $4.00 on a ten cent bet.  A dollar would have been $40.  Don't worry. I will get that $100 will get you a $1,000 before too long. Just has to be the right time, right place, right race.

We inch our way to stardom in horseracing.  Patience will out!  thus, says Shug about Orb!

After the Kentucky Derby

I studied this Kentucky Derby field like everything and when push came to shove, and I had to put up money to make a bet, I went very light and easy does it.  I stayed with my usual pattern of two dollar bets untl I find the right place to jump in to swim to my goal.  So I bet straight and seldom, but did bet on the favorite as well as my two favorite picks. I know that the track makes the difference but this year everyone was on Orb's bandwagon so I knew he would be the favorite and that the horseracing world wanted Orb to win this one.  If one studies the race, as it was a rainy day, if it were not for the jockey, Orb would have been a show horse, as it took Joel to pick up his whip and push him to suddenly take off to win the final finish of the race.

I think all the other jockeys more or less must have also let their horses simply fade away as only a few staggered in early.

So as it turns out, a longshot placed so that the super five did not pay and will have a carryover of $300,033 dollars for the next super five race at Churchill Downs.  When I find out what that race is all about, I may jump in for a piece of it.  So far, it is unknown to me what is happening that day since nothing is up about it.

But once people learn of its size and opportunity, the payoff will swell to a huge amount and everyone will become aware of it.

So the last remains of the Derby hangover until Thursday, May 5, where one can still recoup his losses if he wants to put up the money to win a high five, always a very difficult bet to win.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds

SBhttp://www.sbnation.com  The Kentucky Derby Posts were drawn today.  I am trying to win this year instead of merely being a spectator so I decided to write this post to help.  I noticed the following formula that the racing secretary has given us to sue to determine our selections:

There are 3 favorites: Orb, Verrazano, and Golden Cents who all fall in a relatively low odds bet that range from 7-2 to 4-1 and 5-1.  This is followed by Revolutionary at 10-1, and Normandy Invasion at 12-1.

After that five horses are ranked at 15-1.  They are My Lute, Overanalyzed, It's My Lucky Day, Java's War, and Vyjack.

Next there are three horses ranked at 20-1. Palace Malice, Charming Kitten, and Will Take Charge.  At 30-1 are Oxbow and Lines of Battle.

Finally, at 50-1 are Black Onyx, Golden Soul, Giant Finish, Falling Sky, and Frac Daddy.

Pretty simple.

To be blunt, I learned that only twice in the past ten years has a favorite won.  Longshots seem to prevail in this great run for the roses.

Verrazano has another negative going against him, and that is something called the Apollo's Curse.  Orb has not ever had the speed required to win this race according to stats that I have read, and while Golden Cents has neither negative against him, he has the added problem of having to be a back to back winner for his trainer, Doug O'Neil.  So in a sense, the odds appear to be really against these three top favorites.  Yet, they will draw the most money at the betting window.

MyLute which is a longshot but ridden by a hot jockey and female at that, Rosie Napravnik, is going off at odds of 15 to 1 but you can just bet that on the day of the race her odds will be much lower thanks to all the females in the world who will bet on a female jockey. Likewise, two jockeys from La Croix will get heavy backing because of their minority status.

It turns out that two jockeys who are very well respected and liked have not yet won a Kentucky Derby race and both are on mounts going off at 15 - 1 also.   Garrett Gomez on Vyjack and Rafael Bejarano on Overanlyzed have not yet won the big one: The Kentucky Derby.

And then there is Lines of Battle, the winner of the huge race at Dubai, who just now has landed at Churchill Downs.  Prejudice against his flying in late from Ireland will probably have him go off at higher than the 30-1 odds set on him now.  But he has the potential to walk in and take it away, simply because nobody will be expecting it from the 11th post position.

If it rains, because there is a 60% chance for rain in the evening at Churchill Downs, the track will certainly favor the horses who like the slop. I hope that it will stay dry and fast so that it goes off smoothly for any and all.

Since I used a statistical sheet that gave me Vyjack and Verrazano as the two top speed horses I have stayed in their corner.  There are other horses who are nearly as good so I don't and won't put all my eggs in one basket.  I hope to win a superfecta  if I can make it happen.

It turns out that Vyjack was foaled on Feb.11, which is my birthday so I have taken a good interest in him as a result.  He had the luck of the draw to draw the last post, #20.  He could do it if he is capable enough so I don't think that it is a bad sign but it is a difficult one.  Number #11 is much better. Verrazano drew post #14 which is a very good post, and Orb drew #16 which is also very good and has produced winners from the past.  Verrazano was foaled Feb. 20. I find that fascinating about these two horses who both hail from the state of New York.

I like It's My Lucky Day just because of his name, and as May 4 is a day personal to me, I am hopeful that this years Kentucky Derby will reward my effort in working these horses out so that I make hay while the sun shines in the great state of Kentucky.

Experimenting to see if I did the link correctly.  All my practice at apple may pay off here too.