Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds

SBhttp://www.sbnation.com  The Kentucky Derby Posts were drawn today.  I am trying to win this year instead of merely being a spectator so I decided to write this post to help.  I noticed the following formula that the racing secretary has given us to sue to determine our selections:

There are 3 favorites: Orb, Verrazano, and Golden Cents who all fall in a relatively low odds bet that range from 7-2 to 4-1 and 5-1.  This is followed by Revolutionary at 10-1, and Normandy Invasion at 12-1.

After that five horses are ranked at 15-1.  They are My Lute, Overanalyzed, It's My Lucky Day, Java's War, and Vyjack.

Next there are three horses ranked at 20-1. Palace Malice, Charming Kitten, and Will Take Charge.  At 30-1 are Oxbow and Lines of Battle.

Finally, at 50-1 are Black Onyx, Golden Soul, Giant Finish, Falling Sky, and Frac Daddy.

Pretty simple.

To be blunt, I learned that only twice in the past ten years has a favorite won.  Longshots seem to prevail in this great run for the roses.

Verrazano has another negative going against him, and that is something called the Apollo's Curse.  Orb has not ever had the speed required to win this race according to stats that I have read, and while Golden Cents has neither negative against him, he has the added problem of having to be a back to back winner for his trainer, Doug O'Neil.  So in a sense, the odds appear to be really against these three top favorites.  Yet, they will draw the most money at the betting window.

MyLute which is a longshot but ridden by a hot jockey and female at that, Rosie Napravnik, is going off at odds of 15 to 1 but you can just bet that on the day of the race her odds will be much lower thanks to all the females in the world who will bet on a female jockey. Likewise, two jockeys from La Croix will get heavy backing because of their minority status.

It turns out that two jockeys who are very well respected and liked have not yet won a Kentucky Derby race and both are on mounts going off at 15 - 1 also.   Garrett Gomez on Vyjack and Rafael Bejarano on Overanlyzed have not yet won the big one: The Kentucky Derby.

And then there is Lines of Battle, the winner of the huge race at Dubai, who just now has landed at Churchill Downs.  Prejudice against his flying in late from Ireland will probably have him go off at higher than the 30-1 odds set on him now.  But he has the potential to walk in and take it away, simply because nobody will be expecting it from the 11th post position.

If it rains, because there is a 60% chance for rain in the evening at Churchill Downs, the track will certainly favor the horses who like the slop. I hope that it will stay dry and fast so that it goes off smoothly for any and all.

Since I used a statistical sheet that gave me Vyjack and Verrazano as the two top speed horses I have stayed in their corner.  There are other horses who are nearly as good so I don't and won't put all my eggs in one basket.  I hope to win a superfecta  if I can make it happen.

It turns out that Vyjack was foaled on Feb.11, which is my birthday so I have taken a good interest in him as a result.  He had the luck of the draw to draw the last post, #20.  He could do it if he is capable enough so I don't think that it is a bad sign but it is a difficult one.  Number #11 is much better. Verrazano drew post #14 which is a very good post, and Orb drew #16 which is also very good and has produced winners from the past.  Verrazano was foaled Feb. 20. I find that fascinating about these two horses who both hail from the state of New York.

I like It's My Lucky Day just because of his name, and as May 4 is a day personal to me, I am hopeful that this years Kentucky Derby will reward my effort in working these horses out so that I make hay while the sun shines in the great state of Kentucky.

Experimenting to see if I did the link correctly.  All my practice at apple may pay off here too.