I explained the game of horse racing for the Kentucky Derby in my previous post so that now I am listing the results of the draw for post positions that took place this afternoon.
1. Vicar's in Trouble, (20-1) 2. Harry's Holiday, (50-1) 3. Uncle Sigh, (30-1) 4. Danza, (10-1) 5. California Chrome, (5-2) *favorite, 6. Samraat, (15-1), 7. We Miss Artie, (50-1) 8. General A Rod, (15-1) 9. Vinceremos, (30-1) 10. Wildcat Red, (15-1) 11. Hoppertunity, (6-1) 12. Dance With Fate, (20-1) 13. Chitu, (20-1) 14. Medal Count, (20-1) 15. Tapiture, (15-1) 16. Intense Holiday, (12-1) 17. Commanding Curve, (50-1), 18. Candy Boy, (20-1), 19. Ride On Curlin, (15-1) 20. Wicked Strong, (8-1).
One of these horses will win the race on Saturday, and so between now and then, horse racing fans will be working furiously to handicap these horses who have managed to gain enough points from prep races to participate in this world famous event. I have already stated that I like California Chrome the best, but he has raced solely in California so that this will be his first race away from his own familiar race tracks. It will be a challenge for him to maintain his speed, endurance, and stamina while competing with other horses who have been racing in a variety of racetracks vying for the chance to meet him here.
California Chrome was lucky to get the number 5 position instead of the inside post positions 1,2, or 3 which are difficult for any horse to gain a momentum when all the horses so closely packed together hinder each other in gaining a position. Because the rail is the shortest distance around the track, most jockeys maneuver their horses to travel the shortest distance to save ground and to get a strong position in the race itself...In truth, in most of the jammed European and Asian races that I have seen this is not true. Inevitably, the best horse does seem to surge even from the outside to be able to overtake all the other horses to win the race...so American horse racing plays differently from European and Asian in that respect. The best horse generally will win in Europe or Asia I have noticed, but not so in America where it may be a jockey jockeying for position that determines who really wins in the races in the USA. I had always thought that many horses would be a problem but in truth it is not...It does take a competent and seasoned jockey to know how to handle this amount of muscle that lies beneath his legs and American jockeys are somehow or other conditioned differently in American races than Europeans and Japanese and Chinese in Asian or European races.
So essentially, the Kentucky Derby could produce a win from the best horse after all, but too many times, the public has been fooled by the odds makers to be unable to discover the winning horse. I am fully prepared to accept the victory from whichever horse does win this race because there are many factors at work here. Confidence and certainty in the horse itself is usually the real answer to which horse will win. All have been conditioned to win. The reason that California Chrome is so favored is because he has won most of his last races placing a lot of distance between himself and the horse that comes in behind him. He is being called a freak. I do not think he is a freak at all, but he is a very strong and capable animal who apparently loves to win races in California with ease. Will he do the same in Louisville? That is what we wait expectantly to learn. But he is favored for the Derby due to the fact that he has won all of his prep races to date. Can he win three more? We are all hoping that he can since everyone wants a triple crown winner after so many years of having none. It would be fun to see another group of horses suddenly be able to win each of the legs of the Triple Crown.
It would be a novelty if we finally find another winner of the Triple Crown, the combination of the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness at Pimlico in Md., and the Belmont Stakes at Belmont in NY. The races occur rapidly after one another, and for a horse to be able to win that consistently would certainly be a record setting experience, and I believe firmly that is why people are so expectantly waiting to see if this is the year that the Triple Crown becomes possible again.
If California Chrome does win the Kentucky Derby, people will be hoping that he is the one who finally achieves that really elusive achievement, the Triple Crown.
In his pedigree are two former winners of the Triple Crown, both Secretariat and Seattle Slew, so he definitely has the bloodlines which could mean that his genes will help him to win this great reward.
So I am thinking that numbers do play a big role here, and 5, 12, 10, and 6, 18 are most likely to be numbers to consider...California Chrome with Dance with Fate, Wildcat Red, Samraat and Candy Boy look pretty formidable to me...Number 11 which is Hoppertunity has to be tossed into the mix as well...Those are the horses with the best chances of battling to win the race...If they all come in at the finish line in that order, I will be happy....But that is chance for you...but these are my main picks.
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