I am going to write this blog today which is exactly one week before post positions are selected to know which horse will be at the most advantageous spot to win. What does really matter when trying to figure out who will win the battle for the roses?
I will share my information for making my decisions with the few lucky people who will read my blogspot. I am trying my best to figure out how to win this one at the lowest possible price also. I know many people try to buy a win. It can be done.
But for the record, I am using information from several sources: handicappers, websites, and a set of stats provided by those who are willing to share and pool their knowledge. So first of all, I sat down and read and studied the pace parameters for the 2013 Kentucky Derby which is available at a website called chef-de-race. From that I gleaned the four top contenders who rank the highest in the stats department on their actual race day performance. I came up with eight horses, and the first four were pretty much favorites already since they have won so much and have such good performances. Verrazano is number 1, and should by all rights, if everything went perfect, be the winner of the Derby this year. But since nothing ever does go right, why not realize right away that he will either win it hands down or be a key horse in an exacta, trifecta, superfecta, or high five if they have a high five. I doubt that his jockey will try to cost him the race if he does not win...One often wonders if jockeys perceive that they are going to lose that they just don't bother to try any further...one wonders.
Overall since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top five . Ten times in 10f, 10fTT, 8 times in 3Fr, and 10fLQ and five times in %E. Why keep stats? Now we know why. It is convincing me to use this data. This is a direct quote from the chef-de-race page. So I went to work and studied the results to find the top five or ten...They are listed below. Lord, let us hope that one of them is the Winner.
Strangely enough, the second favorite Orb did not fare well in this parameters thing so unless something is wrong with this piece of data, he ranks below the top 8.
The top horses are Verrazano, Vyjack, Normandy Invasion, Revolutionary, Golden Cents, Governor Charlie, It's My Lucky Day, and Java's War. Black Onyx, MyLute, and Palace Malice rank just below these...Orb still does not come in to play in this scenario of the winner comes from this group...Maybe he will be the one time horse that pulls a surprise but most often the winners come from the horses listed above for their actual performances according to these set of stats.
My next set of data came from Horse Racing Nation which listed the fact that front runners fare badly but closers and pressers fare well at Churchill Downs. The stats on this are incredible and downright scarey.
This is where I wonder at why it is that there are so many longshot high odds in the second, third, and fourth positions...The favorites do not even fare well here.
The year Giacomo won is the most astounding for the odds were that a horse going off 50 to 1 won but the horse that came in second was 71 to 1...The exacta alone was unbelievable, but the trifecta did include a 9-2 favorite
In order, and I will rank the winners odds for those consecutive years...but more importantly to me is what about those who came in second, third, and fourth, and even fifth...where are all the favorites?
Odds from Horseracing Nation story: Win column: 13-1, 4-1, 50-1, 6-1, 5-1, 5-2, 50-1, 8-1, 21-1, and 19-1. Why should I feel confident in a favorite when the odds are so prohibitive? Can Verrazano or Orb who are already the two favorites beat these odds? I wonder.
Now look at place columns: 5-2, 5-1, 71-1, 30-1,10-1,12-1,6-1, 11-1, 8-1, and 4-1.
Now look at show columns: 6-1, 11-1, 9-2, 9-2, 5-1, 27-1, 20-1, 12-1, 9-1, and 12-1.
Fourth position for superfecta: 9-1, 42-1, 42-1, 29-1, 29-1, 27-1, 12-1, 30-1, 23-1, and 30-1.
Horseracing Nation article did not supply stats for fifth place, but notice that the favorites are clearly out of the top four spots except twice to win...if 4 -1 is a favorite which at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby it is.
So what the heck. How do we find the winner?
For sure, it most likely will be one of the aforementioned horses that I listed from the chef-de-race stats about parameters as that gave me I'll Have Another last year so that I trust it to do the same this year.
Can Doug O'Neill win back to back? Can Kevin Krigger carry the horse to the finish line? He sounds as though he would try to do it if he could...Nobody will every say that he is not more than wanting to win this game....
One horse to consider that is not included is Lines of Battle since he is the real outside horse that is listed in Chef-de-Race but has no meaningful figures. He could be trained well enough to prove that he could take it but it is highly unlikely. But his speed ratings are good and no doubt his trainer is one of the very best.
So I am weighing all these facts, and deciding how to play this game. I am sharing this only with facebook and my blog followers who frankly have no interest in it anyway...but I want to have it in writing so that when I win or lose I can see why.
My favorite is still Verrazano but I am also realistic enough to know that he must have a good post, confidence, and a desire to win. In my opinion, and this is where my years of study come into play, I can almost always pick the winner by watching him in the paddock or post parade. The horse always seems to know. And as Churchill Downs reminds me of a farm in Ohio with which I am long familiar, I have a partiality to it so that I maintain he likes the track wins the race. The horse in the end decides the entire race, not the jockey, or the trainer. But a good trainer will at least let his horse become "at home" for a short time to get the feel of the place.
Churchill Downs is midwestern, is a family oriented track, and lacks much of the sophistication of the Florida tracks, but has a warm and friendly feeling to it. California tracks are notorious for their laidback attitudes, but Churchill Downs has history, midwestern values, and that is why the horse that feels that and adapts to it wins the race. Nothing else...It is bluegrass Kentucky after all.
Good luck to any who do play this game and who read this blog. I love Vyjack but feel that he is too small a horse to compete with some of the larger horses...a bit like Jackson Bend years ago who was also a small horse with a lot of heart.
Long tall legs make a lot of difference when racing down the stretch...I look at the legs...and yes, happy horses are a great sign of a confident horse...tails swishing are a good sign...but ears up, head at attention, and calm tell the story of a horse who is sure of himself...the horses that always look straight as an arrow are concentrating heavily...don't overlook body language...and believe me, the best horse will win no matter what.
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