Breeder's Cup Friday

I am writing this to help clear my mind about these horses and to justify my bets when I make them.  I have followed both TVG and HRN to pick the brains of the handicappers there.   I was rather surprised at some of the choices.

I divided the horses into Morning Line odds to better understand the favorites from long shots.   A long shot does always hit but finding which one is like finding a needle in a haystack if you don't know how to pick it.

I also then separated the jockey riding the horse from one another with those same odds so as to get an idea how to figure which horse might have the advantage of a top jock to guide him to the winner's circle.

I learned that some jockeys will be riding their butts off while most will be riding only one or two races.  It broke down that John Velasquez will be riding more than any other jockey followed by Mike Smith. Both are riding favorites which will most likely win.  John V has Wise Dan while Mike S has Game On Dude.  Mike S also has Royal Delta.  In that race, John V will be riding Close Hatches.

Listening to the handicappers does expose the fact that some handicappers take the game seriously enough to really help the viewer. I was impressed with both TVG and HRN tonight.  It gave me some horses to consider that I had not yet discovered.

Friday's races include the Marathon, the Dirt Mile, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Turf, and Distaff.

My first thought picks are the following: London Bridge, Verrazano, Vorda, Giovanni Boldini, and Princess of Sylmar.  First thought means that I can change my mind if I think of it but for the moment this is where I stand.  I honestly think that Royal Delta may win the Distaff but I am also thinking about the supplementary fee that put Princess of Sylmar into the race.  She is one red hot horse who I think could do it again to Royal Delta.
The Marathon worries me the most. I wanted to go with Ever Ready,  a horse from Argentina ridden by Gary Stevens.  But favorites never win this race.  In a superfecta I would couple Ever Ready with several other horses to maybe pick up the first four.  That would include Old Time Hockey, London Bridge, Ever Ready, and Commander.  I will now go read the pp's of all those horses and change my mind at least three or four times before finally deciding.

I have liked Verrazano from his earliest racing days.  I acknowledge there are others in that race that could be a threat. Brujo de Olleros is one that was mentioned a lot on t.v.  And Holy Lute is a longshot with Mike Smith aboard.  Both are long so I am considering them...all thinking aloud.  Indecision is always the lot of a horse bettor when not totally certain.